Tuesday, July 03, 2007

WP: U.K. attempts model for U.S.? - washingtonpost.com Highlights - MSNBC.com

WP: U.K. attempts model for U.S.? - washingtonpost.com Highlights - MSNBC.com

WP: U.K. attempts model for U.S.?

Assaults may be designed to cause panic more than loss of life
By Karen DeYoung
The Washington Post
Updated: 9:32 a.m. ET July 3, 2007

The next terrorist assault on the United States is likely to come through relatively unsophisticated, near-simultaneous attacks -- similar to those attempted in Britain over the weekend -- designed more to provoke widespread fear and panic than to cause major losses of life, U.S. intelligence and counterterrorism officials believe.

Such attacks require minimal expertise and training and are difficult to prevent. Although British investigators have not claimed al-Qaeda involvement in the latest incidents, officials here said they may constitute a "hybrid" phenomenon, in which al-Qaeda inspires and guides local groups from afar but establishes no visible operational or logistical links.

The connection, several officials said, is made through a growing network of al-Qaeda intermediaries and affiliates who are far removed from the organization's leadership.

'Direct link?'
"What is a direct link?" asked one counterterrorism official. "Is it couriers? Messengers?" U.S. officials "from very senior folks" on down, he said, are watching as the British work to reconstruct the attacks and trace their origin.

In an internal memo titled "Staying on Target," CIA Director Michael V. Hayden told agency employees yesterday that "events in Great Britain since last Friday serve as a reminder -- if we ever needed one -- that this remains a dangerous world and that our work in defending America is as important as ever."

The incidents in England and Scotland, counterterrorism officials said, coincide with recent U.S. intelligence indicating stepped-up movement of money and people from al-Qaeda camps in the ungoverned tribal areas of Pakistan, near the Afghan border. Several senior U.S. military officials were sharply critical yesterday of what they saw as the Pakistani government's unwillingness to move forcefully against the camps and the U.S. administration's failure to press Pakistan harder to curtail what one called a terrorist "growth industry."

Al-Qaeda's "presence in the tribal areas has not been this secure since before 9/11," one senior U.S. military intelligence official wrote in an e-mail.

Hayden's memo appeared designed to rally his troops in the face of the morale-deadening criticism directed at the intelligence community in recent years. Accused of incompetence for failing to warn of the September 2001 attacks and for providing faulty intelligence on Iraq, it is also charged with overzealous anti-terrorism efforts that see al-Qaeda operatives under every bed.

'Growing debate'
"Even as we deal with the current threat," Hayden's memo said, "it is hard not to notice the growing debates on both sides of the Atlantic about certain aspects of the war on terrorism: Guantanamo, habeas corpus, detentions, renditions, electronic surveillance, etc. For us, though, the choices are pretty clear: We will use all of our lawful authorities to defend America and her friends.

"Some say elements of the current debate reflect the thinking of a pre-9/11 world," the short memo concluded. "Don't worry about that. Keep your eye on our objective. For all of us at CIA, today's date is clear: It's always September 12th."

After the events in Britain, U.S. officials have tried to strike a balance between insisting that "we do not currently have any specific threat information that is credible about a particular attack in the United States," as Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said yesterday, and asking Americans to keep a careful watch on their surroundings.

Security concerns
Although the Department of Homeland Security did not raise the threat level, Chertoff and other officials said that security and surveillance have been increased in several ways, including the placement of more U.S. marshals on flights to Britain and other European destinations.

Officials said the weekend's events had only heightened existing concerns. "It's not just what happened in England and Scotland that has us watching," another counterterrorism official said. "We have had some concerns for some time."

On Jan. 22, the Holland Tunnel in New York was evacuated for several hours after a suspicious package was spotted after an accident. Hazardous-materials teams were brought in, and the package was blown up by a robot before the tunnel was reopened.

In Georgetown on Saturday night, some restaurants and nightclubs were evacuated after firefighters spotted an abandoned backpack on a sidewalk. And on Sunday afternoon, police set up checkpoints on the access route into Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, stopping some cars and trucks for inspection.

A senior administration official acknowledged that recent arrests of groups charged with plotting terrorist attacks in Miami and at Fort Dix, N.J., and John F. Kennedy International Airport, as well as the arrest of a man charged with planning to detonate an explosive device in an Illinois shopping mall, have "come under a great deal of criticism for not being serious."

But the official saw some vindication for U.S. law enforcement in the British plots. "Remember that the FBI and the law enforcement community have done important work in nipping these cells in the bud so that we don't get to the stage of cars pouring into an airport terminal," the official said.

'Reminder' of threat
Saying that the British incidents "certainly appeared to be al-Qaeda-inspired," the official said they were more of a "reminder" of an ongoing threat in this country than an indication that similar attacks are imminent here.

Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism expert at Georgetown University, said he considered al-Qaeda involvement likely in the British incidents and disagreed with those who labeled the attacks amateurish. "They didn't work, but I think of all the al-Qaeda plots we've seen, their sophistication is in their simplicity. They used available materials. Where they tripped up is in the detonation of the devices. That's a trickier business."

The alleged perpetrators under arrest in Britain -- two of them physicians -- pose a challenge for both British and U.S. intelligence officials. The doctors' names did not appear on any U.S. list of people with suspected terrorist ties, U.S. officials said.

Al-Qaeda has made a "strategic investment" in Britain in recent years, Hoffman said, creating ties to an infrastructure of individuals and groups that are difficult to fit into an intelligence profile.

By drawing from a large reservoir of potential operatives, Hoffman said, al-Qaeda is attempting to "break any attempt at profiles, and also to demonstrate the diversity of their movement."

Staff writers Thomas E. Ricks and John Solomon contributed to this report.

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19573618/

Website That Predicted London Bombs an Intelligence Agency Front

Fellow jihadist forums claim Al Hesbah infiltrated and controlled by ISI, CIA

Prison Planet | July 2, 2007
Paul Joseph Watson

An Islamic website that carried a doomsday message that "London shall be bombed" before the discovery of two crude car bombs in London last week was notorious for having long been infiltrated and controlled by intelligence agencies and spooks who were trying to entrap suspected terrorists.

Hours before London explosives technicians dismantled a large car bomb in the heart of the British capital's tourist-rich theater district, a message appeared on one of the most widely used jihadist Internet forums, saying: "Today I say: Rejoice, by Allah, London shall be bombed," reported CBS News on Friday.

The website in question, Al Hesbah, has been attacked by other similar jihadist Internet forums for being a tool of intelligence agencies to monitor and entrap Islamic extremists.

The Al-Tajdeed website launched a campaign in March of last year in an attempt to expose Al Hesbah for "serving Arab and Western intelligence agencies, as well as exposing the founders of the famous Al-Ansar website (www.al-ansar.org), including the operator known as "Irhabi 007" and other members of the Global Islamic Media Front," according to a report by Gabriel Weimann, professor of communication at Haifa University, Israel.

This was also reported by The Intelligence Summit, a non-profit group that monitors Islamic websites.

According to the Jamestown Foundation , suspicions were cast that the Saudi ISI (which is wholly controlled by the CIA) had infiltrated Al-Hesbah and gleaned information leading to the rapid arrests of suspects linked to the attack on the Abqaiq oil facility in February 2006.

The website was subsequently suspended after two of its foremost users, Muhammad al-Zuhayri and Muhammad Tamallat, were exposed as intelligence agents.

It is by no means conclusive, but certainly interesting that a website charged with being a front for Western and Arab intelligence agencies was the venue for the proclamation that London would be bombed hours before the car bombs were actually discovered.

U.S. diplomat found dead in Cyprus

NICOSIA (Reuters) - The U.S. military attache in Cyprus was found dead with his throat slit on Monday in a remote mountainous region of the Mediterranean island in what authorities are treating as a suicide.

The body of Lieutenant-Colonel Thomas Mooney, 45, was found near his locked car north-west of the capital, Nicosia, four days after he went missing.

A post-mortem report said Mooney died from excessive bleeding caused by deep incisions to the throat. He was identified through dental records.

"There is no foul play involved," forensic pathologist Marios Matsakis, who carried out the post-mortem, told Reuters.

In Washington, the U.S. State Department said there was nothing to suggest Mooney's death was an act of terrorism.

"With deep sadness, I announce that Thomas Mooney, who served his nation with distinction as our Defense Attache, was found dead by Cypriot authorities on Monday," U.S. ambassador Ronald Schlicher said.

In spite of its close proximity to the Middle East, Cyprus is considered a relatively safe location for diplomats.

Mooney, whom fellow diplomats described as a "straight up military type", was last seen leaving the embassy compound on Thursday afternoon.

His body was found some metres from his car which was parked on a dirt track, and a sharp implement was found in the area. He was believed to have been dead for a few days.

Mooney arrived in Cyprus on June 2006 for his second tour of duty on the island in the past five years. He lived in Cyprus on his own and had family in the United States.

The American embassy cancelled an Independence Day reception scheduled for Monday evening.

"He just came across as a highly disciplined American official doing his job," one diplomat said.

Iraqi doctors in Britain fear bomb plot backlash

By Luke Baker

LONDON (Reuters) - Iraqi doctors working in Britain expressed anger on Tuesday that one of their number could be involved in the London and Glasgow bomb plots, saying they feared it could harm their reputation.

More than 1,900 Iraqi-trained doctors are registered with Britain's General Medical Council, working in government hospitals or in private practices across the country.

Some fled Iraq under Saddam Hussein's rule to seek work abroad. Others have arrived since his overthrow in 2003, fleeing the deepening dangers at home despite an awareness that Iraq has a desperate need for doctors in its current crisis.

"I'm really shocked and upset," said Mohammed Hasan al-Memar, a medical student at King's College London who came to Britain from the Iraqi city of Kerbala.

"I know a lot of Iraqi doctors -- there are so many in Britain -- and the sense in the community in general is disappointment and disgust.

"That this extremism can affect people like doctors who have an obligation to treat and help people... it's amazing. And the fact that he is an Iraqi doctor just adds salt to the wound."

British police sources have named one of those arrested as Bilal Abdulla, who qualified in Iraq in 2004.

As well as Abdulla, at least two other doctors are among the suspects arrested so far, including a young Jordanian who qualified in Amman in 2004.

In Iraq, and throughout the Middle East, doctors are held in high regard. The profession attracts some of the most well-educated people in the region and gives its practitioners an elevated social status.

Ironically, many doctors in Baghdad spend much of their time dealing with the victims of car bombs in the capital.

"I'm finding it difficult to comprehend that a doctor can carry the mentality of a murderer," said Dr Jubouri, a specialist at one of Baghdad's main hospitals, who asked that his first name not be used.

"I hope people realize this man doesn't represent Iraqi doctors. Iraqi doctors have already suffered a lot and have a great reputation."

With nearly 40 percent of doctors registered in Britain having received their training overseas, including more than 6,000 in the Middle East, there was concern that the events of the past five days would taint the reputations of all.

"A lot of people will just quickly point the finger at Middle Eastern doctors now, I know it and I guess to an extent I can't blame them," said Mudher al-Khairallah an Iraqi-British internist at Ninewells hospital in Dundee, Scotland.

"I just chaired a meeting of doctors and physiotherapists in the hospital and all I could think about was were the police about to come through the door and ask to question me.

"It's such a shame to feel so paranoid all of a sudden. There are so many Iraqi doctors in the UK -- there are probably 10 in my hospital trust alone -- and they are held in very high esteem. I'd hate to see that respect eroded."

(Additional reporting by Mussab al-Khairallah in Baghdad)

Cheney was central voice in torture debate

He helped lay path for Gitmo interrogations


July 03. 2007 8:00AM

Picture
AP
Vice President Dick Cheney speaks in Washington in 2005.

S
hortly after the first accused terrorists reached the U.S. naval prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on Jan. 11, 2002, a delegation from the CIA arrived in the Situation Room. The agency presented a delicate problem to White House counsel Alberto Gonzales, a man with next to no experience on the subject. Vice President Dick Cheney's lawyer, who had a great deal of experience, sat nearby.

The meeting marked "the first time that the issue of interrogations comes up" among top-ranking White House officials, recalled John Yoo, who represented the Justice Department. "The CIA guys said, 'We're going to have some real difficulties getting actionable intelligence from detainees' " if interrogators confined themselves to humane treatment allowed by the Geneva Conventions.

From that moment, well before previous accounts have suggested, Cheney turned his attention to the practical business of crushing a captive's will to resist. The vice president's office played a central role in shattering limits on coercion in U.S. custody, commissioning and defending legal opinions that the Bush administration has since portrayed as the initiatives, months later, of lower-ranking officials.

Cheney and his allies, according to more than two dozen current and former officials, pioneered a distinction between forbidden "torture" and permitted use of "cruel, inhuman or degrading" methods of questioning. They did not originate every idea to rewrite or reinterpret the law, but fresh accounts from participants show that they translated muscular theories, from Yoo and others, into the operational language of government.

A backlash beginning in 2004, after reports of abuse leaked out of Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison and Guantanamo Bay, brought what appeared to be sharp reversals in courts and Congress - both for Cheney's claims of executive supremacy and his unyielding defense of what he called "robust interrogation."


But a more careful look at the results suggests that Cheney won far more than he lost. Many of the harsh measures he championed, and some of the broadest principles supporting them, have survived intact but out of public view.

The vice president's unseen victories attest to traits that are often ascribed to him but are hard to demonstrate from the public record: thoroughgoing secrecy, persistence of focus, tactical flexibility in service of fixed aims and close knowledge of the power map of government. On critical decisions for more than six years, Cheney has often controlled the pivot points - tipping the outcome when he could, engineering a stalemate when he could not and reopening debates that rivals thought were resolved.

"Once he's taken a position, I think that's it," said James Baker, who has shared a hunting tent with Cheney more than once and worked with him under three presidents. "He has been pretty damn good at accumulating power, extraordinarily effective and adept at exercising power."

Getting the enemy to talk

David Addington, Cheney's general counsel, set the new legal agenda in a blunt memorandum shortly after the CIA delegation's visit. Geneva's "strict limitations on questioning of enemy prisoners," he wrote on Jan. 25, 2002, hobbled efforts "to quickly obtain information from captured terrorists."

No longer was the vice president focused on procedural rights, such as access to lawyers and courts. The subject now was more elemental: How much suffering could U.S. personnel inflict on an enemy to make him talk? Cheney's lawyer feared that future prosecutors, with motives "difficult to predict," might bring criminal charges against interrogators or Bush administration officials.

Geneva rules forbade not only torture but also, in equally categorical terms, the use of "violence," "cruel treatment" or "humiliating and degrading treatment" against a detainee "at any time and in any place whatsoever." The War Crimes Act of 1996 made any grave breach of those restrictions a U.S. felony. The best defense against such a charge, Addington wrote, would combine a broad presidential directive for humane treatment, in general, with an assertion of unrestricted authority to make exceptions.

The vice president's counsel proposed that President Bush issue a carefully ambiguous directive. Detainees would be treated "humanely and, to the extent appropriate and consistent with military necessity, in a manner consistent with the principles of" the Geneva Conventions. When Bush issued his public decision two weeks later, on Feb. 7, 2002, he adopted Addington's formula - with all its room for maneuver - verbatim.

In a radio interview last fall, Cheney said, "We don't torture." What he did not acknowledge, according to Alberto Mora, who served then as the Bush-appointed Navy general counsel, was that the new legal framework was designed specifically to avoid a ban on cruelty. In international law, Mora said, cruelty is defined as "the imposition of severe physical or mental pain or suffering." He added: "Torture is an extreme version of cruelty."

How extreme? Yoo was summoned again to the White House in the early spring of 2002. This time the question was urgent. The CIA had captured Abu Zubaida, then believed to be a top al-Qaida operative, on March 28, 2002. Case officers wanted to know "what the legal limits of interrogation are," Yoo said.

This previously unreported meeting sheds light on the origins of one of the Bush administration's most controversial claims. The Justice Department delivered a classified opinion Aug. 1, 2002, stating that the U.S. law against torture "prohibits only the worst forms of cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment" and therefore permits many others. Distributed under the signature of Assistant Attorney General Jay Bybee, the opinion narrowed the definition of "torture" to mean only suffering "equivalent in intensity" to the pain of "organ failure . . . or even death."

When news accounts unearthed that opinion nearly two years later, the White House repudiated its contents. Some officials described it as hypothetical, without disclosing that the opinion was written in response to specific questions from the CIA. Administration officials attributed authorship to Yoo, a law professor who had come to serve in the Office of Legal Counsel.

But the "torture memo," as it became widely known, was not Yoo's work alone. In an interview, Yoo said Addington, as well as Gonzales and deputy White House counsel Timothy Flanigan, contributed to the analysis.

The vice president's lawyer advocated what was considered the memo's most radical claim: that the president may authorize any interrogation method, even if it crosses the line into torture. U.S. and treaty laws forbidding any person to "commit torture," that passage stated, "do not apply" to the commander in chief, because Congress "may no more regulate the President's ability to detain and interrogate enemy combatants than it may regulate his ability to direct troop movements on the battlefield."

That same day, Aug. 1, 2002, Yoo signed off on a second secret opinion, the contents of which have never been made public. According to a source with direct knowledge, that opinion approved as lawful a long list of interrogation techniques proposed by the CIA - including waterboarding, a form of near-drowning that the U.S. government has prosecuted as a war crime since at least 1901. The opinion drew the line against one request: threatening to bury a prisoner alive.

Yoo said for the first time in an interview that he verbally warned lawyers for the president, Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that it would be dangerous as a matter of policy to permit military interrogators to use the harshest techniques because the armed services, vastly larger than the CIA, could overuse the tools or exceed the limits. "I always thought that only the CIA should do this, but people at the White House and at DOD felt differently," Yoo said. The migration of those techniques from the CIA to the military, and from Guantanamo Bay to Abu Ghraib, aroused worldwide condemnation when abuse by U.S. troops was exposed.

Through his spokeswoman, Tasia Scolinos, Gonzales declined a request for an interview about his time in the White House counsel's office and his interactions with Cheney. The vice president's spokeswoman, Lea Anne McBride, declined to comment on Yoo's recollection.

Disputes over Guantanamo

In the summer and fall of 2002, some of the Bush administration's leading lawyers began to warn that Cheney and his Pentagon allies had set the government on a path for defeat in court. As the judicial branch took up challenges to the president's assertion of wartime power, Justice Department lawyers increasingly found themselves defending what they believed to be losing positions - directed by the vice president and his staff.

One of the uneasy lawyers was Solicitor General Theodore Olson, a conservative stalwart whose wife, Barbara, had died on Sept. 11, 2001, when the hijacked American Airlines Flight 77 crashed into the Pentagon. Olson shared Cheney's robust view of executive authority, but his job was to win cases. Two that particularly worried him involved U.S. citizens - Jose Padilla and Yaser Esam Hamdi - who had been declared enemy combatants and denied access to lawyers.

Federal courts, Olson argued, would not go along with that.

Decision time came in a heated meeting in Gonzales's office, according to four officials with direct knowledge, none of whom agreed to be quoted by name about confidential legal deliberations. Olson was backed by associate White House counsel Bradford Berenson, a former law clerk to Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy.

Berenson told colleagues that Kennedy, the court's swing voter, would never accept absolute presidential discretion to declare a U.S. citizen an enemy and lock him up without giving him an opportunity to be represented and heard.

Gonzales listened quietly. Then he decided in favor of Cheney's lawyer. John Ashcroft, who was attorney general at the time, declined to discuss details of the dispute but said the vice president's views "carried a great deal of weight. A U.S. District Court ruled several months later that Padilla had a right to counsel.

Cheney's strategy fared worse in the Supreme Court, where two cases arrived for oral argument, shortly after Padilla's, on April 28, 2004.

For months, Olson and his Justice Department colleagues had pleaded for modest shifts that would shore up the government's position. Hamdi, the American, had languished in a Navy brig for 2½ years without a hearing or a lawyer. Shafiq Rasul, a British citizen at Guantanamo Bay, had been held even longer. Addington, the vice president's counsel, fought and won again. He argued that any declaration of binding rules would restrict the freedom of future presidents and open the door to further lawsuits. On June 28, 2004, the Supreme Court ruled 8 to 1 in the Hamdi case that detainees must have access to a lawyer and an opportunity to challenge their status as enemy combatants before a "neutral decision maker." The Rasul decision, the same day, held 6 to 3 that Guantanamo Bay is not beyond the reach of federal law.

Eleven days later, Olson stepped down as solicitor general.

Resisting rules on torture

Rumsfeld, Cheney's longtime friend and mentor, gathered his senior subordinates at the Pentagon in the summer of 2005. He warned them to steer clear of Senate Republicans John McCain, John Warner and Lindsey Graham, who were drafting a bill to govern the handling of terrorism suspects.

"Rumsfeld made clear, emphatically, that the vice president had the lead on this issue," said a former Pentagon official with direct knowledge.

Though his fingerprints were not apparent, Cheney had already staked out a categorical position for the president. It came in a last-minute insert to a "statement of administration policy" by the Office of Management and Budget, where Nancy Dorn, Cheney's former chief of legislative affairs, was deputy director. Without normal staff clearance, according to two Bush administration officials, the vice president's lawyer added a paragraph - just before publication on July 21, 2005 - to the OMB's authoritative guidance on the 2006 defense spending bill.

"The Administration strongly opposes" any amendment to "regulate the detention, treatment or trial of terrorists captured in the war on terror," the statement said. Before most Bush administration officials even became aware that the subject was under White House review, Addington wrote that "the President's senior advisers would recommend that he veto" any such bill.

Among those taken unawares was Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England. More than a year had passed since Bush expressed "deep disgust" over the abuse photographed at Abu Ghraib, and England told aides it was past time to issue clear rules for U.S. troops.

In late August 2005, England called a meeting of nearly three dozen Pentagon officials, including the vice chief and top uniformed lawyer for each military branch. Matthew Waxman, the deputy assistant secretary for detainee affairs, set the agenda.

Waxman said the president's broadly stated order of Feb. 7, 2002 - which called for humane treatment, "subject to military necessity" - had left U.S. forces unsure about how to behave. The Defense Department, he said, should clarify its bedrock legal requirements with a directive incorporating the language of Geneva's Common Article 3. That was exactly the language - prohibiting cruel, violent, humiliating and degrading treatment - that Cheney had spent three years expunging from U.S. policy.

'An indifference to public opinion'

Over the next 12 months, Congress and the Supreme Court imposed many of the restrictions that Cheney had squelched.

On Oct. 5, 2005, the Senate voted 90 to 9 in favor of McCain's Detainee Treatment Act, which included the Geneva language. It was, by any measure, a rebuke to Cheney. Bush signed the bill into law. "Well, I don't win all the arguments," Cheney told the Wall Street Journal.

Yet he and Addington found a roundabout path to the exceptions they sought for the CIA, as allies in Congress made little-noticed adjustments to the bill.

The final measure confined only the Defense Department to the list of interrogation techniques specified in a new Army field manual. No techniques were specified for CIA officers, who were forbidden only in general terms to employ "cruel" or "inhuman" methods. Crucially, the new law said those words would be interpreted in light of U.S. constitutional law. That made a big difference to Cheney.

The Supreme Court has defined cruelty as an act that "shocks the conscience" under the circumstances. Addington suggested, according to another government lawyer, that harsh methods would be far less shocking under circumstances involving a mass-casualty terrorist threat. Cheney might have alluded to that advice in an interview broadcast on ABC's "Nightline" on Dec. 19, 2005, saying "what shocks the conscience" is to some extent "in the eye of the beholder."

Eager to put the detainee scandals behind them, Bush's advisers spent days composing a statement in which the president would declare support for the veto-proof bill on detainee treatment. Hours before Bush signed it into law on Dec. 30, 2005, Cheney's lawyer intercepted the accompanying statement "and just literally takes his red pen all the way through it," according to an official with firsthand knowledge.

Addington substituted a single sentence. Bush, he wrote, would interpret the law "in a manner consistent with the constitutional authority of the President to supervise the unitary executive branch and as Commander in Chief."

Top officials from the CIA, Justice, State and Defense departments unanimously opposed the substitution, according to two officials. None of that mattered. With Cheney's weight behind it, White House counsel Harriet Miers sent Addington's version to Bush for his signature.

"The only person in Washington who cares less about his public image than David Addington is Dick Cheney," said a former White House ally. "What both of them miss is that . . . in times of war, a prerequisite for success is people having confidence in their leadership. This is the great failure of the administration - a complete and total indifference to public opinion."

A rebuke to Cheney's theories

On June 29, 2006, the Supreme Court struck its sharpest blow to the house that Cheney built, ruling 5 to 3 that the president had no lawful power to try alleged terrorists in military commissions.

Not only did the court leave the president beholden to Congress for the authority to charge and punish terrorists, but it rejected a claim of implicit legislative consent that Bush was using elsewhere to justify electronic surveillance without a warrant. And not only did it find that Geneva's Common Article 3 protects "unlawful enemy combatants," but it also said that those protections - including humane treatment and the right to a trial by "a regularly constituted court" - were enforceable by federal judges in the United States.

The court's decision, in Hamdan vs. Rumsfeld, was widely seen as a calamity for Cheney's war plan against al-Qaida.

In another reversal for Cheney, Bush acknowledged publicly on Sept. 6 that the CIA maintained secret prisons overseas for senior al-Qaida detainees, a subject on which he had held his silence since The Washington Post disclosed them late in 2005. The president announced he had emptied the "black sites" and transferred their prisoners to Guantanamo Bay to be tried.

The same week, almost exactly a year after the vice president's office shelved Waxman's Pentagon plan, Waxman's successor dusted it off. DOD Directive 2310.01E, the Department of Defense Detainee Program, included the verbatim text of Geneva's Common Article 3 and described it, as Waxman had, as "minimum standards of treatment of all detainees." The new Army field manual, published with the directive, said interrogators were forbidden to employ a long list of techniques that had been used against suspected terrorists since Sept. 11, 2001 - including stripping, hooding, inflicting pain and forcing the performance of sex acts.

For all the apparent setbacks, close observers said, Cheney has preserved his top-priority tools in the "war on terror." After a private meeting with Cheney, one of them said, Bush decided not to promise that there would be no more black sites - and seven months later, the White House acknowledged that secret detention had resumed.

The Military Commissions Act, passed by strong majorities of the Senate and House on Sept. 28 and 29, 2006, gave "the office of the vice president almost everything it wanted," said Yoo, who maintained his contact with Addington after returning to a tenured position at Berkeley.

The new law withstood its first Supreme Court challenge, on April 2. It exempts CIA case officers and other government employees from prosecution for past war crimes or torture

Without repealing the War Crimes Act, which imposes criminal penalties for grave breaches of Geneva's humane-treatment standards, Congress said the president, not the Supreme Court, has final authority to decide what the standards mean - and whether they even apply.

A year after Bush announced at a news conference that "I'd like to close Guantanamo," the camp remains open and has been expanded. Senior officials said Cheney, with few allies left, has turned back strong efforts - by Rice, England, new Defense Secretary Robert Gates and former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson, among others - to give the president what he said he wants.

Cheney and his aides "didn't circumvent the process," one participant said. "They were just very effective in using it."

More than a year after Congress passed McCain-sponsored restrictions on the questioning of suspected terrorists, the Bush administration is still debating how far the CIA's interrogators may go in their effort to break down resistant detainees. Two officials said the vice president has deadlocked the debate.

Bush said last September that he would "work with" Congress to review "an alternative set of procedures" for "tough" - but, he said, lawful - interrogation. He did not promise to submit legislation or to report particulars to any oversight committee, and he has not done so.

Two questions remain, officials said. One involves techniques to be authorized now. The other is whether any technique should be explicitly forbidden.

According to participants in the debate, the vice president stands by the view that Bush need not honor any of the new judicial and legislative restrictions. His lawyer, they said, has recently restated Cheney's argument that when courts and Congress "purport to" limit the commander in chief's warmaking authority, he has the constitutional prerogative to disregard them.

If Cheney advocates a return to waterboarding, they said, they have not heard him say so. But his office has fought fiercely against an executive order or CIA directive that would make the technique illegal.

"That's just the vice president," said Gerson, the former speechwriter, referring to Cheney's October remark that "a dunk in the water" for terrorists - a radio interviewer's term - is "a no-brainer for me."

Gerson added: "It's principled. He's deeply conscious that this is a dangerous world, and he wants this president and future presidents to be able to deal with that. He feels very strongly about these things, and it's his great virtue and his weakness."

------ End of article

By BARTON GELLMAN and JO BECKER

The Washington Post

At least 3 shot dead in clashes at Pakistan mosque

By Kamran Haider

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - A paramilitary trooper and at least two students were killed when gunfire erupted during clashes at a mosque run by a Taliban-style movement in Islamabad on Tuesday, police and hospital officials said.

A cleric inside Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, told Reuters eight students had been killed in exchanges of fire, and a loudspeaker in the compound broadcast a message calling on followers of the movement to begin suicide attacks.

The clashes began when around 150 students attacked a security picket at a government office near the mosque, snatched weapons and took four officials hostage, according to police.

Paramilitary forces fired tear gas to disperse hundreds of students outside the mosque, and came under fire from automatic weapons. Several female students were taken to hospitals, suffering from the effects of the gas.

Authorities have been locked in a tense stand-off for months with the student movement, which is seeking to impose Taliban-style social values in the Pakistani capital.

"I can confirm that one of our troopers has been killed in the firing from inside the mosque," Masha Allah, a senior paramilitary official, told reporters.

A senior doctor at the capital's state-owned PIMS hospital said at least two students had died from their wounds.

"Two students brought here with gunshot wounds have succumbed," he told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Officials at two hospitals said at least a dozen people had been admitted with gunshot wounds, including a cameraman with CNBC news channel.

Students set alight part of a building housing the environment ministry, and stoned other government offices, breaking windows.

As the firing continued over several hours the call for suicide attacks was issued over a loudspeaker. "We had asked to stop the firing 10 minutes ago, but as the firing continues we are calling for suicide attacks."

Despite the shooting, dozens of students carrying staves remained on the street outside the mosque.

Burqa-clad women stood on the rooftops of an adjacent madrasa, or Islamist school, shouting anti-government slogans, while male students guarded the entrances to the compound, and some were seen brandishing Kalashnikov rifles.

"KILL US"

"Kill us. We will die but we will not back off from our demands to enforce Islamic Sharia," Mahira, one of the female students, told Reuters by telephone.

Troops occupied buildings overlooking the sprawling mosque complex, which also houses a madrasa.

Police armed with batons lined up and ambulances parked in nearby streets.

Scores of men, women and children living in the neighborhood also came out on the streets shouting support for the students, and calling on the government to stop the firing.

The Red Mosque has long been known as a hotbed of Islamic radicalism. Trouble began in January when female students attached to the mosque occupied a library next to their madrasa to protest destruction of mosques built illegally on state land.

The government has hitherto refrained from using force, out of fear it could provoke threatened suicide attacks.

Concern casualties among female students could result in a backlash from religious conservatives around the country has also stayed the government's hand.

Last Friday, President Pervez Musharraf said suicide bombers from an al Qaeda-linked militant group, Jaish-e-Mohammad, were holed up in the mosque.

Musharraf, who survived two al Qaeda-inspired assassination attempts, said the government had tried to resolve the standoff through negotiations, but was ready to take action.

Chertoff: ‘Lieberman Is Dead Right’ In Calling For Increased Wiretapping

Think Progress
Tuesday July 3, 2007

Yesterday, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) used the foiled terror attempts in London to call for greater domestic spying in the United States. “I hope these terrorist attacks in London wake us up here in America to stop the petty partisan fighting going on about…electronic surveillance,” Lieberman said, referencing the Senate Judiciary Committee’s recent subpoenas of documents related to Bush’s wiretapping program that the White House has refused to release.

Today, on Fox and Friends, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff echoed Lieberman’s call, arguing that Lieberman was “dead right” in calling for increased domestic surveillance:

CHERTOFF: I’m concerned about losing the tools that I can tell you we use every single day to catch the kind of plotting which we’ve just seen, obviously, give rise to the attempted bombings in London. I think Joe Lieberman is dead right.

Watch it here

British surveillance did not prevent the London attacks. In fact, “[t]here had been no prior intelligence of planned attacks from the terror organization.” Instead, vigilant citizens helped prevent the bombings:

The events unfolded when police were called to Haymarket, south of Piccadilly Circus, after a man fell at the nightclub Tiger Tiger, injuring his head, prompting a call for an ambulance around 1:30 a.m. Friday. When crews arrived, they noticed smoke coming from a green Mercedes parked in front of a club. […]

The announcement of the second bomb came about 20 hours later … [a car] had been towed across town to an impound lot; the attendants there, on the alert after news of the first foiled car bombing, smelled gasoline and alerted authorities.

Currently, the White House is refusing to cooperate with Congress by not explaining why current surveillance methods are insufficient and why it feels it needs even more intrusive spying on American citizens.

Oklahoma City Mayor Calls for North American Union

Adam Rott
Oklahoma Corridor Watch
Tuesday July 3, 2007

“If we can have but three nations and one economy,” said Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornettt “I think it would be much easier for us to solve a lot of the social problems with the end migration.”

These remarks came in a video interview at the 2004 United States Conference of Mayors which was held in Boston, for which Mayor Cornett was describing the development of Oklahoma City. The Conference of Mayors is, according to their website, “the official nonpartisan organization of cities with populations of 30,000 or more,” and has been in existence since 1932.

This signifies how local governments across the nation are either moving forward with, or directly supporting, the economic integration of North America, also called the North American Union. While such a pursuit may seem like the stuff of conspiracy theories, it is increasingly becoming more apparent that our government, with the direct support of private sector participants, is building a union in North America comparable to the European Union.

Watch the video below.

Or download the video directly here.

Mayor Cornett went on to say in the video that since Oklahoma City is situated on along I-35, which is “really apart of that NAFTA Corridor,” the potential for economic development on a global scale is a real possibility. I-35 received the NAFTA Superhighway designation by the Oklahoma Legislature in 1995, and there are currently plans by the Oklahoma Department of Transportation to expand I-35 into a 10-lane, multi-modal corridor in the Oklahoma City area.

The sovereignty and democratic process of our State and the Union are coming under increasing fire from groups who are advocating a more “regional” approach to governance, and our elected officials at all levels, seem to not care about the ramifications of “economic integration,” nor are they involving the public whom they're meant to serve in the process of deciding the course for our future.

Pound at 26-year high against dollar as the hot money pours into sterling

Ashley Seager
London Guardian
Tuesday July 3, 2007

The prospect of a further UK interest rate rise this week and continued problems in the United States housing market combined yesterday to push the pound to its highest level against the dollar in more than a quarter of a century.

The strong pound means more good news for British tourists heading across the Atlantic but spells further pain for British firms trying to sell their products to the huge US market.

In frantic afternoon trading, the pound pushed up to $2.0174, breaking the 26-year high of $2.0133 set in April.
The move was supported by a growing feeling that interest rates in Britain are heading up to 5.75% on Thursday and maybe to 6% within months, making sterling-based assets more attractive than ones in the US, where analysts think problems in the housing market could eventually force the Federal Reserve to cut the bank rate from 5.25%.

With Britain already having the highest rates in the Group of Seven leading economies, hot money is flowing into sterling.

The dollar also fell to within one cent of a record low against the euro, at $1.36, extending heavy losses suffered on Friday after soft data on US consumer price inflation and personal income and spending encouraged the belief among investors that the Fed would not be raising rates soon.

Concerns about the US sub-prime mortgage market - amplified over the past week by trouble at two Bear Stearns-managed hedge funds - have also dented investors' appetite for risk.

"Basically we are seeing a continuation of dollar selling after the soft data we saw last week," said Boris Schlossberg at DailyFX.com in New York. "It all dovetails into the theme that the ECB [European Central Bank] and BoE are going to be much more aggressive raising rates than the Fed."

The ECB has raised rates for countries using the euro to 4% and is expected to raise them further.

The dollar's broad decline against all currencies was not even halted by a stronger than expected report on the country's manufacturing sector from the Institute of Supply Management.

"Manufacturing is rebounding," said Nigel Gault, an analyst at Global Insight. "In the first quarter, manufacturers were reporting that their customers had too much inventory on hand; now they are reporting that customers have too little inventory. So orders are now rising and driving production higher."

The speculation that the Bank of England will put up interest rates this week was bolstered by a survey from CIPS/NTC yesterday showing that while activity in Britain's factories slowed slightly last month, price pressures remained strong.

The CIPS/NTC purchasing managers' index fell to 54.3 in June from a downwardly revised 54.7 in May. Any figure above 50.0 denotes expansion.

But raw material costs rose at their strongest for nine months while the output price index eased marginally to 56.8 but remained close to the historic high seen recently.

The figures chime with other surveys showing that firms remain confident about their ability to raise prices and this is likely to swing the argument on Thursday to raise borrowing costs to a seven-year high of 5.75%.

"The continued strength of the prices-charged balance of the UK CIPS/NTC report on manufacturing will provide further ammunition to the hawks at this week's meeting," said Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics.

But there were signs that demand in the UK is subsiding, with the total new orders index slipping to 54.7 from 55.5 in May to reach its lowest since January.

The strong pound does not so far appear to have dented demand for British goods abroad, with the survey's export orders index rising to 54.0 from 53.6.

Analysts said, however, that the pound could fall sharply if the MPC voted against another hike this week.

"Thursday is a big focus - it's almost fully priced in," said Rabobank's senior proprietary trader Lee Ferridge. "The risk to sterling is probably one way. If the Bank doesn't go [for a hike] that would be a major surprise and would hurt sterling."

Iran rejects US 'ridiculous claims'

Press TV
Tuesday July 3, 2007

Iran has strongly rejected the allegations by the US that the country is involved in the training, financing and arming of Iraqi insurgents.

US officials have always been leveling 'baseless and ridiculous' accusations at Iran without providing any proof, Iran's Mehr news agency quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini on Monday as saying.

A senior US military commander, Brigadier-General Kevin Bergner, had earlier accused the Quds Force -- a unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps-- of training groups of 20 to 60 Iraqi insurgents at a time and sending them back to Iraq to fight US troops there.

Bergner claimed that senior Iranian officials were aware of all those activities.

"The Americans try to cover up their four and a half-year failure in Iraq by making such accusations; and instead of accepting the realities, they just insist on their wrongdoings," the spokesman said.

Hosseini said that US troops' attacks on civilians and the country's policies in Iraq would only deepen the Iraqis' hatred towards the occupiers.

'al-Qaeda' puts on big shoes, red nose, takes custard pie

Journos join Krazy Klown jihadis in slapstick idiocy

Lewis Page
The Register
Tuesday July 3, 2007

The "car bomber" hysteria gripping much of the British and international media over the weekend has had a bucket of cold water from the Reg already, but just one bucket doesn't seem enough for this kind of outbreak.

To recap: an exceptionally incompetent group of troublemakers, unknown to the plods or spooks, decided to bring a spot of terror to old Blighty starting last Friday. These people had no actual explosives, and were apparently too lazy and ignorant to learn how to make them. Instead, they decided to load cars with petrol, domestic gas cylinders and "containers holding nails", and then set fire to them - either manually or using a cellphone-initiated remote rig of some kind.

Some selected headlines:

"Police avert car bomb 'carnage'" - BBC

"London on the Edge" - Belfast Telegraph

"Terror in Theatreland" - Daily Record

Normally reputable news sources used phrases like "explosives-packed cars", "Qaeda Tactics" and "a third attempt to create terror mayhem in Britain in under 36 hours. Only luck saved lives".

This isn't just rightwing hacks pumping up fear so that the evil securocrats can steal money from hospitals, aid, road safety etc, as our own Thomas C Greene has suggested (As an aside, for UK readers, the health-service budget alone is around three times that of the Defence ministry - and the Defence budget is the big fish in the UK securocrat pond).

Regrettably, alongside the usual mongers of terror fear, more liberal journos have also sought to exaggerate the significance of these rather pathetic attacks. In the case of the lefties, the idea is to suggest that had we Brits not mounted recent wars in Southwest Asia, we would be spared this kind of devastating "terror mayhem."

Frankly, if this kind of thing is the only backlash the West experiences for Iraq, we've got off pretty much scot-free: we should indulge in a spot of military adventurism any time we feel like it.

Conversely, if this is all al-Qaeda have to offer, we should never have lost a moment's sleep over them - let alone shoved our valuable appendages into the military meat-grinder of Afghanistan (I'm choosing to assume here that al-Qaeda only became a serious presence in Iraq after we invaded the place. Argue among yourselves as to whether Saddam was more or less threatening than Osama).

Getting back to here and now, these have to be some of the most pathetic terror attacks ever - difficult to distinguish from minor accidents. For goodness' sake, a car is full of petrol anyway; and gas cylinders too often enough. People drive cylinders of gas around all the time. Now and again - oh my god! - they probably carry boxes of nails, bolts, tools or whatever in the same vehicle. (Aiee!)

Sometimes these fiends crash their cars, and sometimes the vehicles burn out. It's one of the costs of living in the industrial world; if people couldn't get fuel - portable energy - easily enough to have accidents with it, most of us would still be dirt-poor, illiterate, shovelling muck for a living and dying like flies from disease - rather than dying very rarely in car crashes or gas explosions.

This kind of event happens on the motorways almost every day, at least the petrol fires and often enough with the other hazards added. The roads get closed off as a result, sometimes for hours - just like the Haymarket did on Friday morning. It causes massive inconvenience to lots and lots of people.

But the perimeter is manned by firemen and traffic cops, not bomb teams and terror-feds. And so this weekend a minor news story - one injured in bunt-out car / suicide attempt causes travel chaos - becomes a big international media frenzy, a "test of the new Prime Minister's mettle," if you please.

It might be a test of ministerial mettle if thousands of British Muslims were burning cars every night, as has happened in France. But what we seem to have here is some foreigners burning just one car and failing to burn two more owing to almost unbelievable incompetence.

The mindset of a man who's willing to set himself on fire to make a point - as one of the Glasgow terror-clowns seems to have done - but not to spend any effort at all on researching methods is a difficult one to understand. Even if these jokers were illiterate or had no internet access (seems unlikely, one of the suspects is apparently a doctor) they could have at least done a test. In my part of town, fun-loving teenagers burn out a car or two down by the canal every week or so: nobody would notice another one with some nails in it.

Such a test would have told these idiots what every bomb-disposal operator and Hollywood effects guy already knows: that petrol, gas etc make for an excellent, photogenic fireball which you can normally be quite close to without ill effects. Too much real, killer, shrapnel-throwing blast will actually prevent a fireball effect, if you're interested (When putting on shows for people, we used to use a quarter-stick of plastic explosive taped to a bottle of petrol. Any more bang than that, and you don't get a fireball. The petrol just vapourises harmlessly).

There are ways to get a killer blast out of nothing more than fuel and air, but you need a lot more air than there is inside a car for a decent bang and you need to mix the two ingredients thoroughly and in the right proportions. Even flour, well stirred up into a cloud in a closed bin which is partly empty, can form an effective explosive mixture. Domestic gas which has been allowed to spread and mix with air in a confined space such as a house or a boat can flatten buildings.

If you're very technically skilled, you can produce a fuel-air explosion without a confining container. Various kinds of "bunker-buster" weapons do this, spreading liquid fuel using a bursting charge to form a fairly-precisely-blended volume of fuel-air mix almost instantly and then touching it off with another flash. But an effective mid-air fuel bang is just for proper weapons factories, really. Even they tend to have a significant dud rate.

We used to be constantly disappointed, on the bomb teams, at the consistently rubbish efforts of the ordinary bomber. Many people seem to think that any kind of fire or loud noise will become deadly if you add nails. Your correspondent was once called out to a scene where a teenage cretin, finding that batteries would go pop if heated in a fire, taped nails around D-cells and put them on a camping cooker. Terrifyingly, some of the nails flew as much as two or three feet when this infernal device reaped its deadly harvest.

Similarly, having been trained to meet the threat from competent terrorists like the Provisional IRA (PIRA), we would then have to be re-trained out of our paranoia in order to deal with ordinary idiots like the animal-lib crowd. A typical animal-libber bomb in the old days, for instance, might consist of a bottle of deadly petrol with a petrol-soaked sponge taped to it and a pair of burning joss-sticks stuck in the sponge.

Full of worry about PIRA, young bomb techs faced with such a device during exams would often faff about for ages with robots and bomb armour and disruptors, whereas the correct response is to slip on some fireproofs, quickly trot down the road and remove the joss sticks. It's technical stuff, you know, bomb disposal.

If these guys at the weekend really were anything to do with al-Qaeda, all one can really say is that it looks as though the War on Terror is won. This whole hoo-ha kicked off, remember, with 9/11: an extremely effective attack. Then we had the Bali and Madrid bombings, not by any measure as shocking and bloody but still nasty stuff. Then we had London 7/7, a further significant drop in bodycount but still competently planned and executed (Not too many groups would have been able to mix up that much peroxide-based explosive first try without an own goal).

Now we have this; one terror-clown badly burnt and nobody else hurt at all. An event about as significant as the teenagers burning cars down my way - and don't I wish those little sods got as much police attention and jail time. The jihadi threat has seemingly sunk to animal-lib levels.

Why, it's almost as if suicide bombing was a fairly dumb tactic. The 7/7 bombers seem to have been one of very few terror groups in the UK who were competent enough to make explosives and weren't under plod/spook surveillance, and now they're all dead.

Remember, this country carried on successfully for six years with hundreds - thousands, sometimes - of tons of explosives raining down on it every night for six years, delivered by very competent Germans who often died doing that job. The civilian death toll was around 60,000 according to most sources; the equivalent of 20 9/11s, more than three for every year of the war. Civilisation was not brought down. Germany and Japan withstood even greater violence, and survived it too.

Our parents and grandparents stood that kind of punishment, not to mention four times as many military dead, and got on with life. Sad though it is to confirm the oldsters' world view, by comparison our generation - our generation's journalists, anyway - seem a bit lacking in backbone. If all we have to put up with is an occasional 7/7, that's background noise by comparison - it should merit the same sort of headlines, the same political response as motorway pileups or airline crashes.

And if all we have to deal with is clusterfucks like the one just past, it should merit the same headlines and response as my local youths; essentially none (Maybe some sort of special cop/spook taskforce with sweeping unconstitutional powers to hand out clips round the ear. Yes yes, I know, there'd be some kind of legal problem).

Move along; nothing to see here.

Third of Europe see US as threat to stability: poll

AFP
Tuesday July 3, 2007

More Europeans see the United States as a threat to global stability than Iran and North Korea combined, according to a poll published Monday.

The Harris Interactive survey for the Financial Times showed that 32 percent of more than 5,000 respondents in five European countries -- Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain -- regarded the United States as the biggest threat to stability.

China was next on the list, thought of as the greatest threat by 19 percent of European respondents, followed by Iran at 17 percent, Iraq at 11 percent, North Korea at nine percent, and Russia at five percent.

The FT said the poll findings were consistently reflected in 11 monthly polls between July 2006 and last month in which the percentage of respondents who regarded the United States as a threat ranged between 28 percent and 38 percent.

By contrast, a quarter of American respondents regarded North Korea as the biggest threat, followed by Iran as 23 percent, China at 20 percent, and the United States itself at 11 percent.

More than 1,000 people were surveyed online in each of the six countries every month between July 2006 and last month by Harris Interactive for the poll.

'Uncle Sam' Tickets Hundreds Of Speeding Central Floridian Drivers

Dressed Up Deputy Helps Nab Drivers

Local 6 News
Tuesday July 3, 2007

Hundreds of Central Florida motorists were ticketed Monday by a costumed Uncle Sam officer in a weeklong operation targeting speeding holiday drivers.

During the four-hour traffic operation, 275 citations were issued, according to sheriff's deputies.

"Unless Uncle Sam hops in your car and puts his foot on your gas pedal and makes you speed, we are not entrapping anybody," Orange County traffic division Officer Ken Wynne said.

Speeding tickets handed out by Uncle Sam start at $80 and increase with each mile per hour over the speed limit, Orange County sheriff's deputies said.

Local 6 News did not reveal Uncle Sam's whereabouts, urging motorists to drive carefully wherever they are.

Later during the week of Fourth of July, Uncle Sam will be on the lookout for red-light runners and aggressive drivers in Orange County.

In the past, deputies have dressed up as elves near Christmas, the Grinch at New Year's and a leprechaun around St. Patrick's Day.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this story.

Children Arrested, Handcuffed For Riding Bikes

You Tube
Monday July 2, 2007


From Cakewalk to Quicksand

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
Counterpunch
Tuesday July 3, 2007

John Lukacs in his monograph, June 1941: Hitler and Stalin, reports that "the best military experts throughout the world predicted the defeat of the Soviet Union within a few weeks, or within two months at the most" following Hitler's invasion of Russia on June 22, 1941.

While the superb German military machine made an excellent showing, by the beginning of 1943 its offensive capability was exhausted and the Germans were defeated at Stalingrad. Germany lost the war one and one-half years before the US could manage the invasion of Normandy. If HItler had not depleted the German Army in Russia, a US invasion of Normandy could not have been contemplated.

Lukacs concerns himself with unintended consequences of June 22, 1941. It is not too early, or too late, to concern ourselves with the unintended consequences of March 20, 2003.

Four and one-quarter years ago the Pentagon and its neoconservative advisors and media propagandists promised Americans a "cakewalk" war of 3 to 6 weeks duration. Six weeks later on May 2, 2003, in history's most ill-advised propaganda stunt, President Bush landed on the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln, whose tower was adorned with a banner declaring "Mission Accomplished," and announced the end to major combat operations in Iraq.

In fact, the war had hardly begun. Four years later with the failure in June 2007 of President Bush's desperate last measure--"the surge"--US offensive capability is exhausted. The US military can do no more and has less control of the situation than ever.

Perhaps the clearest indication that the war in Iraq is no longer under American control is Turkey's announcement of plans to invade northern Iraq, the home of the Iraqi Kurds. As June 2007 came to an end, Turkey's Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul announced that if US or Iraqi forces did not eliminate the Kurdish guerrillas that were attacking Turkey, the Turkish Army would move into northern Iraq to deal with the situation.

Foreign Minister Gul was unequivocal: "The military plans have been worked out in the finest detail. The government knows these plans and agrees with them. If neither the Iraqi government nor the US occupying forces can do this [crush the guerrillas], we will take our own decision and implement it."

This ultimatum puts President Bush in an impossible situation. Neither the Iraqi government nor the US military have the means to deal with Kurdish guerrillas in their mountain strongholds. The US military cannot even occupy Baghdad. The Iraqi government exists in name only and can be found only in its offices located inside the fortified and US-protected Green Zone in Baghdad. Moreover, to the extent that the in-name-only Iraqi government has any support, it comes from the Kurds in northern Iraq.

The rest of Iraq is controlled by Sunni insurgents and Shi'ite militias. Even Basra in the south has been abandoned to the Shi'ite militias by Bush's British ally.

The over-stretched American Empire hasn't any troops to send to northern Iraq. NATO, whose charter was to defend Western Europe from Soviet invasion should have been disbanded two decades ago. Today NATO functions as an auxiliary US force and has been sent to Afghanistan, where it is being defeated like the British and Russians before it.

In the midst of this unmanageable chaos, vice president Cheney, Bush's former UN ambassador John Bolton and large numbers of Christian and Jewish Zionists are demanding that the US attack Iran, and Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The unintended consequences of the "cakewalk war" are already far outside the Bush administration's ability to manage and will plague future governments for many years. For the administration to initiate new acts of aggression in the MIddle East would go beyond recklessness to insanity.