Monday, June 30, 2008

Is White House Blocking Search for Bin Laden?

Pentagon Would Use Special Forces to Nab Bin Laden in Pakistan, New York Times Says



The Pentagon has drafted a secret plan that would send U.S. special forces into the wild tribal regions of Pakistan to capture or kill Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants, but the White House has balked at giving the mission a green light, The New York Times reported today.

New leaked reports have exposed U.S. covert operations in the Middle East.

The Bush administration, which has seven months left in its term, gave the go-ahead for the military to draw up the plan to take the war on terror across the Afghan border and into the mountains of Pakistan where bin Laden is believed to be hiding, according to the newspaper.

Intelligence reports have concluded that bin Laden has re-established a network of new training camps, and the number of recruits in those camps has risen to as many as 2,000 in recent months from 200 earlier this year.

Although the special forces attack plan was devised six months ago, infighting among U.S. intelligence agencies and among White House offices have blocked it from being implemented, the Times reported.

The Bush team would like to leave office next January having put bin Laden, the man behind the Sept. 11 attacks, behind bars or in his grave.

But sending U.S. forces into Pakistan would be controversial and risky. The rugged mountain area is populated by bin Laden sympathizers, hurting the chances that such a raid could succeed. It would also trigger a diplomatic outcry from the Pakistani government.

The United States has conducted a series of aerial drone attacks on Taliban and al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan, killing several key Qaeda figures and narrowly missing bin Laden's deputy, Ayman Zawahiri, in one strike. But an attack earlier this month killed several Pakistani border guards instead and has made Pakistan less willing to allow U.S. strikes on its territory.

The Taliban of Pakistan, who are close al Qaeda allies, have grown alarmingly stronger in Pakistan's lawless border areas and threatened the regional capital of Peshawar last week.

Pakistan's new coalition government, which has made a series of truces with the militants in recent months, was forced over the weekend to launch an offensive to push the militants back from the outskirts of Peshawar.

Pakistan called the operation a success, even though none of the heavily armed militants in the area were reported killed.

Pakistan announced Sunday that Bush had invited Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to Washington next month. High on that visit's agenda is the question of whether Pakistan can restrain the Taliban by itself or whether the United States could decide to take action in the tribal areas.

A separate report said the Bush administration has also begun a "major escalation of covert operations against Iran ... to destabilize the country's religious leadership."

The charge was made by veteran journalist Seymour Hersh in the current issue of The New Yorker magazine.

World needs tough monetary policy to tackle inflation

By David Milliken Reuters

BASEL (Reuters) - The world needs higher interest rates to tackle a clear inflation threat, even though economic growth is likely to be hit harder than most observers expect, the Bank for International Settlements said on Monday.

The Swiss-based BIS -- a meeting place and think tank for the world's central banks -- gave a gloomy outlook for both inflation and growth in its annual report, published after a three-day meeting of central bankers from over 100 countries.

BIS General Manager Malcolm Knight said central banks faced their greatest challenge in years, with growth slowing even as inflation pressures intensified.

"Clearly, the downside risks for future growth complicate the task of monetary policy," he said in a speech to the BIS annual meeting. "But there must in the end be a forceful response to confront the danger that inflation expectations could rise appreciably, with all the attendant problems that would bring."

The tone of the annual report was darker than last year after what the BIS described as the worst financial market turmoil since World War Two, and the bank saw a "significant risk" of recession in the United States, the world's biggest economy.

But this did not mean central banks should abandon their focus on fighting inflation, even if the BIS was concerned to point out that there was no single solution for all banks.

"With inflation a clear and present threat, and with real policy rates in most countries low by historical standards, a global bias towards monetary tightening would seem appropriate. That said, the circumstances of different countries, both actual and prospective, currently rule out a 'one-size-fits-all' approach," the BIS said.

"Moreover, should the global economy slow sharply and inflationary pressures recede, the bias to tightening would evidently also be reduced," it added.

The BIS said the financial market turmoil which spread from the U.S. subprime mortgage market in the middle of last year was the consequence of a classic unsustainable credit boom, and that disruption to the banking system limited the potential of interest rate cuts to boost demand.

Tax cuts and more government spending might have some merit, but the countries whose government finances were solid enough to afford that tended to be those less affected by the turmoil, the BIS added.

"In the aftermath of a long credit-driven boom, it would not be surprising to see turmoil in financial markets, slowing real growth and temporarily rising inflation," it said.

"Their interaction does appear to point to a deeper and more protracted global downturn than the consensus view seems to expect. At the same time, inflationary forces, particularly in emerging market economies, could also prove unexpectedly strong and persistent."

Knight, who leaves the BIS in September, said forecasts that current high inflation in industrialized countries was a temporary blip could not be fully trusted because of a significant rise in consumers' inflation expectations and past failures in accurately predicting rising commodity prices.

"It would seem imprudent from an inflationary perspective to rely heavily at this stage on such an outcome," he said.

U.S., EURO ZONE, JAPAN

The BIS was most pessimistic about the U.S. economy, saying that as well as the housing downturn there was a danger that consumption would take a further hit from people trying to rebuild savings depleted by past over-borrowing.

A bright spot for the United States was exports, helped by a weak dollar and the fact that other economies seemed to be less affected by its slowdown than in previous downturns -- though Britain appeared to be suffering a similar property-led malaise.

Strong business investment and falling unemployment meant prospects for domestic demand were good in the euro zone, especially Germany, though France, Spain and Ireland would have to cope with the end of house price booms.

Prospects were not so good in Japan, where weak wage growth and narrow profit margins in small firms meant demand from consumers and many businesses was vulnerable to rising prices.

Then there was the general fallout from the credit squeeze and rising oil and commodity prices, the BIS added.

"Fears are building that the global economy might be at some kind of tipping point. These fears are not groundless," the BIS said.

CENTRAL BANK REACTION

Analyzing how central banks had reacted to the crisis, the BIS said that most -- including the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England -- appeared to have set rates on the same criteria as before the crisis.

But the U.S. Fed had cut rates more rapidly, and the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates faster than past behavior would have suggested.

"For these central banks, it appears that something not present in the equations, perhaps a shift in the economic outlook not present or reflected in the contemporaneous output gaps and rates of inflation, must have influenced policy in a decisive way," the BIS said.

The BIS repeated its call that central banks and regulators should do more to curtail future credit booms.

"It would have been better to avoid the build-up of credit excesses in the first place. In future, this could be done through the establishment of a new macrofinancial stability framework which would call for both monetary and macroprudential policies to 'lean against the wind' of the credit cycle."

* For a copy of the report and Knight's speech, go to www.bis.org

Friday, June 27, 2008

This Recession, It's Just Beginning

Friday, June 27, 2008; Page D01

So much for that second-half rebound.

Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.

It ain't gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.

This thing's going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We're caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of.

Only this will be a different kind of recession -- a recession with an overlay of inflation. That combo puts the Federal Reserve in a Catch-22 -- whatever it does to solve one problem only makes the other worse. Emerging from a two-day meeting this week, Fed officials signaled that further recession-fighting rate cuts are unlikely and that their next move will be to raise rates to contain inflationary expectations.

Since last June, we've seen a fairly consistent pattern to the economic mood swings. Every three months or so, there's a round of bad news about housing, followed by warnings of more bank write-offs and then a string of disappointing corporate earnings reports. Eventually, things stabilize and there are hints that the worst may be behind us. Stocks regain some of their lost ground, bonds fall and then -- bam -- the whole cycle starts again.

It was only in November that the Dow had recovered from the panicked summer sell-off and hit a record, just above 14,000. By March, it had fallen below 12,000. By May, it climbed above 13,000. Now it's heading for a new floor at 11,000. Officially, that's bear market territory. We'll be lucky if that's the floor.

In explaining why that second-half rebound never occurred, the Fed and the Treasury and the Wall Street machers will say that nobody could have foreseen $140 a barrel oil. As excuses go, blaming it on an oil shock is a hardy perennial. That's what Jimmy Carter and Fed Chairman Arthur Burns did in the late '70s, and what George H.W. Bush and Alan Greenspan did in the early '90s. Don't believe it.

Truth is, there are always price or supply shocks of one sort or another. The real problem is that the underlying fundamentals had gotten badly out of whack, making the economy susceptible to a shock. The only way to make things better is to get those fundamentals back in balance. In this case, that means bringing what we consume in line with what we produce, letting the dollar fall to its natural level, wringing the excess capacity out of industries that overexpanded during the credit bubble and allowing real estate prices to fall in line with incomes.

The last hope for a second-half rebound began to fade earlier this month when Lehman Brothers reported that it wasn't as immune to the credit-market downturn as it had led everyone to believe. Lehman scrambled to restore confidence by firing two top executives and raising billions in additional capital, but even that wasn't enough to quiet speculation that it could be the next Bear Stearns.

Since then, there has been a steady drumbeat of worrisome news from nearly every sector of the economy.

American Express and Discover warn that customers are falling further behind on their debts. UPS and Federal Express report a noticeable slowdown in shipments, while fuel costs are soaring. According to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in the top 20 markets fell 15 percent in April from the year before, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac report that mortgage delinquency rates doubled over the same period -- and that's for conventional home loans, not subprime. United Airlines accelerates the race to cut costs and capacity by laying off 950 pilots -- 15 percent of its total -- as a number of airlines retire planes and hint that they may delay delivery or cancel orders of new jets from Boeing and Airbus. Goldman Sachs, which has already had to withdraw its rosy forecast for stocks, now admits it was also too optimistic about junk bond defaults, and analysts warn that Citigroup and Merrill Lynch will also be forced to take additional big write-downs on their mortgage portfolios.

Meanwhile, General Motors, already reeling from a 28 percent plunge in the pace of auto and truck sales, now confronts the fact that it won't get any help this time from GMAC, its once highly profitable finance arm, which is reeling from an increase in delinquencies on home and auto loans. With the carmaker hemorrhaging cash, whispers of a possible default sent the price of insuring GM bonds soaring on the credit default market.

You know things are bad when middle-class Americans have to give up their boats and Brunswick, the nation's biggest maker of powerboats, is forced to close 10 plants and lay off 2,700 workers.

For much of the year, optimists took comfort in the continuing strength of the technology sector and exports to fast-growing countries around the world. But even those bright spots have dimmed.

Tech stocks got hammered yesterday after software maker Oracle and BlackBerry maker Research in Motion warned that the pace of corporate orders had slowed.

And both India and China raised interest rates and bank reserves sharply in an effort to tame inflation and slow their overheated economies, even as the air continued to rush out of their real estate and stock market bubbles.

Like the rain-swollen waters of the Mississippi River, this sudden surge of downbeat news has now overflowed the banks of economic policy and broken through the levees of consumer and investor confidence. At this point, there's not much to do but flee to safety, rescue those in trouble and let nature take its course. And don't let anyone fool you: It will be a while before things return to normal.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Malkin’s Conspiracy Theories Proven Wrong

Lee Rogers
Rogue Government
June 12, 2008
The terror war is a complete fraud and we are not over in Iraq fighting for freedom. It is time for propagandists like Malkin to face the facts. Ask yourself how much credibility Malkin and her followers have when they resort to baseless conspiracy theories with no factual evidence to spin the truth of what was an obviously authentic video of a U.S. Marine engaging in some incredibly disgusting behavior.




The conspiracy theorists over at Michelle Malkin’s web site Hot Air, have now been forced to admit that the conspiracy theories they endorsed surrounding the infamous puppy toss video were completely false. Several months ago, Hot Air went into damage control mode when a video showing a U.S. Marine tossing an innocent and defenseless puppy over a cliff while on patrol in Iraq surfaced on the Internet. Malkin and others immediately claimed that the video was a fake. With no conclusive evidence, they endorsed theories including ones that claimed the puppy was actually a stuffed toy and that the audio in the video was edited to recreate the puppy’s cries for help as it was tossed over the cliff. Lance Cpl. David Motari who was identified as the Marine tossing the puppy over the cliff has now been kicked out of the Marines. The puppy toss video was cited as the reason for his separation. The bottom line is that Malkin and all of her brainwashed followers will simply do anything to defend what the U.S. military does even if it flies in the face of factual information and common sense. Simply put, the U.S. military is not fighting for freedom over in Iraq when George W. Bush and the criminals in Washington DC are implementing a police state in the U.S. and shredding the Constitution. Since this is the case, there should be no reason for Malkin and others to run cover for military personnel based upon the premise that they are fighting for freedom. There is very little freedom left in this country, so its time to ask what the U.S. military is really doing in Iraq and in over 100 countries around the world.

From the AP:

The Marine Corps on Wednesday said it was expelling one Marine and disciplining another for their roles in a video showing a Marine throwing a puppy off a cliff while on patrol in Iraq.

The 17-second video posted on YouTube drew sharp condemnation from animal rights groups when it came to light in March.

The clip shows two Marines joking before one hurls the puppy into a rocky gully. A yelping sound is heard as it flips through the air.

"That’s mean. That’s mean, Motari," an off-camera Marine is heard telling the Marine who tossed the black and white dog. The off-camera Marine snickered slightly afterward.

Lance Cpl. David Motari, assigned to the 1st Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment at Kaneohe Bay, is "being processed for separation" from the Marine Corps, the Marine Corps said in a news release. He also received unspecified "non-judicial punishment."

The Marine Corps didn’t say what role Motari played in the clip.

The video was viewed tens of thousands of times before YouTube took it down due to a violation of the site’s terms of use.

"The actions seen in the Internet video are contrary to the high standards we expect of every Marine and will not be tolerated," Marine Corps Base Hawaii said in a news release. "The vast majority of Marines conduct their duties with honor and compassion that makes American people proud."

The second Marine, Sgt. Crismarvin Banez Encarnacion also received unspecified "non-judicial" punishment.

Kurt Nimmo writing for InfoWars has called on Michelle Malkin to apologize for using ridiculous conspiracy theories to defend this incredibly cruel act. Kurt sums up the absurdity of the situation below.

Michelle Malkin, the neocon going by the handle Allahpundit, and all the other neocon camp followers, will support the troops no matter what they do, no matter how many dogs, farm animals, children, mothers and fathers, grandmothers and toddlers they torture, kill, and dismember. After all, most neocons hate all things Muslim, they viscerally loathe all “pinkos” and people who exercise the First Amendment.

The terror war is a complete fraud and we are not over in Iraq fighting for freedom. It is time for propagandists like Malkin to face the facts. Ask yourself how much credibility Malkin and her followers have when they resort to baseless conspiracy theories with no factual evidence to spin the truth of what was an obviously authentic video of a U.S. Marine engaging in some incredibly disgusting behavior. This puppy toss video is just the tip of the iceberg. Look at the torture, the killing of innocent civilians, the depleted uranium scandal, countless cases of corruption and waste. With all of this in mind, it becomes impossible to justify the continued occupation of Iraq regardless of how Malkin and others try to spin it.

Friday, June 06, 2008

Israeli official says attack on Iran 'unavoidable'

Olmert deputy tells newspaper sanctions not slowing Iran's nuclear work
Reuters
updated 9:44 a.m. ET June 6, 2008

JERUSALEM - An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites looks “unavoidable” given the apparent failure of sanctions to deny Tehran technology with bomb-making potential, one of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s deputies said Friday.

“If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective,” Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz told the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

“Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable,” said the former army chief who has also been defense minister.

It was the most explicit threat yet against Iran from a member of Olmert’s government, which, like the Bush administration, has preferred to hint at force as a last resort should U.N. Security Council sanctions be deemed a dead end.

Defiance
Iran has defied Western pressure to abandon its uranium enrichment projects, which it says are for peaceful electricity generation rather than bomb-building. The leadership in Tehran has also threatened to retaliate against Israel — believed to have the Middle East’s only atomic arsenal — and U.S. targets in the Gulf for any attack on Iran.

Mofaz also said in the interview that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for Israel to be wiped off the map, “would disappear before Israel does.”

A spokesman for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert did not address Mofaz’s comments directly but said that “all options must remain on the table” and said more could be done to put financial pressure on Tehran.

“Israel believes strongly that while the U.N. sanctions are positive, much more needs to be done to pressure the regime in Tehran to cease its aggressive nuclear program,” spokesman Mark Regev said.

“We believe the international community should be considering further tangible steps such as embargoing refined petroleum headed for Iran, sanctions against Iranian businessmen traveling abroad, tightening the pressure on Iranian financial institutions and other such steps,” he added.

Mofaz’s remarks came as he and several other senior members of Olmert’s Kadima Party prepare for a possible run for top office should a corruption scandal force the Israeli prime minister to step down.

Party rival
Iranian-born Mofaz has been a main party rival of the Israeli prime minister, particularly following the 2006 elections when Olmert was forced to hand the defense portfolio to Labor, his main coalition partner, at Mofaz’s expense.

Mofaz, who is also designated as a deputy prime minister, has remained privy to Israel’s defense planning. He is a member of Olmert’s security cabinet and leads regular strategic coordination talks with the U.S. State Department.

Israeli planes destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981.

A similar Israeli sortie over Syria last September razed what the U.S. administration said was a nascent nuclear reactor built with North Korean help. Syria denied having any such facility.

Independent analysts have questioned, however, whether Israel’s armed forces can take on Iran alone, as its nuclear sites are numerous, distant and well-fortified.

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24998146/

Unemployment Makes Dramatic Leap

WASHINGTON, June 6, 2008
(CBS/ AP) The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May - the biggest monthly rise since 1986 - as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs.

The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling job opportunities in a time of continuing hardship in the housing, credit and financial sectors.

With employers worried about a sharp slowdown and their own prospects, they clamped down on hiring in May, said Friday's report from the Labor Department. The unemployment rate soared from 5 percent in April to 5.5 percent in May. That was the biggest one-month jump in the rate since February 1986. The increase left the jobless rate at its highest since October 2004.

The big jump in the unemployment rate surprised economists who were forecasting a tick-up to 5.1 percent. Payroll losses, however, weren't as deep as the 60,000 that analysts were bracing for. Still, job losses in both March and April turned out to be larger than the government previously reported. Employers now have cut payrolls for five straight months.

The 5.5 percent rate is relatively moderate judged by historical standards. Yet, there was no question that employers last month sharply cut jobs in manufacturing, construction, retailing and professional and businesses services. Those losses swamped gains elsewhere, including in the education and health fields, government and leisure and hospitality.

The government said the number of unemployed people grew by 861,000 in May - rising to 8.5 million. The over-the-month jump in unemployment reflected more workers losing their jobs as well as an increase in those coming into the job market to look for work, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

A year ago, the number of unemployed stood at 6.9 million and the jobless rate was 4.5 percent.

The startling news followed Thursday's Labor Department report that showed applications for unemployment benefits totaled 357,000 last week, some 18,000 fewer than the previous week. That pushed applications for benefits to their lowest level since mid-April.

However, the four-week average for people receiving benefits edged up to 3.086 million, the highest level since March 6, 2004, when the country was still struggling to recover from a prolonged period of rising unemployment.

A trio of crises - housing, credit and financial - have rocked the economy. That's caused economic growth to slow to a crawl as businesses and consumers have tightened their belts. Spiraling energy costs are another negative force.

The country's economic problems are a top concern for voters - and thus for President Bush, lawmakers on Capitol Hill and those vying to win the White House this fall.

So far this year, the government said, job losses have totaled 324,000.

Workers with jobs, however, saw modest gains.

Average hourly earnings for jobholders rose to $17.94 in May, up 0.3 percent from the previous month. Economists were forecasting a 0.2 percent gain. Over the last 12 months, wages have grown by 3.5 percent.

With food and energy prices marching upward, paychecks aren't stretching as far. Although tax rebates helped to energize shoppers and give major retailers better sales in May, analysts still believe that anxious consumers will be keeping a close watch on their purchases and their budgets in the months ahead.

Worried about inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has signaled that the central bank's rate-cutting campaign, which commenced last September to help bolster the economy, is probably over for now.

Fed officials and the Bush administration are hoping that the Fed's powerful doses of rate reductions and the government's $168 billion stimulus package, including tax rebates for people and tax breaks for businesses, will pull the economy out of its deep funk in the second half of this year.

Even if that happens, the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 6 percent or higher early next year. Employers won't want to ramp up hiring until they feel more sure that an economic recovery has strong legs.

This prolonged stretch of job cuts has many economists believing the country has fallen into a recession.

However, the overall economy as measured by the gross domestic product has managed to remain in positive territory with the GDP growing at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the first three months of the year.


© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Obama-Clinton ticket: a dream or nightmare?

WASHINGTON (AP) — Picture a cozy weekend at Camp David for President Obama, Vice President Hillary Rodham Clinton and their lively spouses.

They'd talk policy and politics in the confines of the rustic retreat. After the long campaign and all the bruised feelings, Michelle Obama could finally reach out to Bill Clinton, as she recently said she's been wanting to do.

To be exact, she said: "I want to rip his eyes out."

Then added: "Kidding."

They could bring along Obama's national security adviser, let's say Samantha Power. She's the foreign policy specialist who had to leave the Obama campaign after calling Hillary Clinton a "monster."

Now that Clinton is angling to become Obama's running mate, the question arises how two frosty rivals and their seething camps might come together without sticking flag pins into each other.

It's all pretty awkward right now.

Clinton's aides and surrogates are boldly pitching her for the No. 2 spot even as many of them, like her, refuse to acknowledge she's failed in her quest for No. 1. Instead, she said she's open to being Obama's running mate.

For months, she's cast her rival as wet behind the ears and herself as the one to be trusted to deal with crises in the middle of the night.

In an Obama-Clinton White House, he'd take the 3 a.m. call. She might or might not be awakened.

For his part, Obama has painted Clinton as a figure of another time and himself as a clean break from all that's past and passe about Washington. He'd be eager to bring in his own team, to bring "change," the coin of his realm.

Then there's Bill, a man of deep experience, in-your-face opinions and more baggage than a boxcar.

Even so, some Democratic strategists are salivating at the prospect of Obama and Hillary Clinton joining forces.

They are fixated on her electoral strengths and not at all on Oval Office atmospherics or what might be done about her husband.

Obama's side is trying to tamp down the veep speculation that threatens to overshadow his historic achievement as the first black presidential nominee, but in a way that does not seem dismissive of her and does not rule out the chance of offering her the position.

They can't afford to dismiss her, or, more precisely, the more than 17 million voters who turned out for her, including masses of blue-collar voters in swing states, Hispanics and older voters, especially women.

Obama picked his words with exquisite care when he talked about Clinton with supporters, directly addressing his but really speaking to hers.

"You can rest assured that when we finally win the battle for universal health care in this country — and we will win that fight — she will be central to that victory," he said.

Clinton, of course, has already fought that fight for another president, her husband, and lost. She's also assailed Obama's health care plan, which does not mandate universal coverage, as seriously deficient.

Obama purposely did not address in what capacity she might take another run at health care. It's unlikely he knows. He and Clinton have yet to talk in a serious way.

The Illinois senator is famously willing to meet with difficult people, even Iran's hard-line, terrorist-underwriting, nuclear-developing, anti-American president.

But a sit-down with Clinton isn't coming together too quickly, days after he proposed that it happen once the dust settled.

After he secured the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, he called her in the evening, missed her and left a message.

She got back to him.

Then they ran into each other backstage Wednesday between delivering speeches at a Washington conference. Obama said they'd have a conversation in "coming weeks."

It's an awkward time.

And then there's Bill.