Somalia's Stability Lies In Ethiopia's Hands

article

As Ethiopian-backed government troops move in to the Somali capital Mogadishu, the anarchic country's fate hangs in the balance and will depend on Ethiopia's post-war strategy.

Ethiopia has said it will withdraw its forces within a few days once its mission - to protect itself and the Somali transitional government from terror attacks - is complete.

In a crisis reminiscent of the US debacle in Iraq, Ethiopia has inserted itself into the conflict with no real plan to return stability to the country it has shaken up over the past week.

The country has definitely proved its military might by sending fighter jets to attack two main airports and sweeping most of the country clear of Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) fighters. But without a clear direction, chaos could ensue.

"As in Iraq, we've seen rapid military success in the early stages but there doesn't seem to be a road map for the post-war phase," said Matt Bryden, a consultant with the International Crisis Group, a Belgium-based conflict analysis think-tank.

"The risk is that if Ethiopia can't consolidate its victory politically, then south Somalia will return to the precarious situation with the same warlordism and anarchy it had in the first place," he said.

Somalia has been without strong central rule since the 1991 ouster of a dictator plunged the country into lawlessness. Clan-based warlords fought ruthless battles against each other for years, until the UIC came to power this year, bringing some sense of security to the Horn of Africa nation.

According to Bryden, Ethiopia has accomplished the goal it set out for itself.

It has effectively dismantled the UIC, with the Islamist group dissolving itself before the arrival of the joint Ethiopian-Somali government troops and others fleeing to southern Somalia, of which the Islamists retain control.

To that end, Ethiopia has ended a proxy war between it and its foe, neighbouring Eritrea, which has been accused of sending arms and fighters to support the UIC militia. Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a brutal 1998-2000 war over a disputed border region, which is now monitored by a UN force.

And while Ethiopia has no real interest in seeing through a political solution to the instability, Bryden said, the consequences could be serious for its administration and its national security if it doesn't.

Jihadists, some with ties to al-Qaeda, are said to have entered the country, and the leader of the UIC, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, is on a UN and US terrorist list.

While UIC forces have been retreating over the last couple of days, the group has threatened to begin a guerrilla war against Ethiopia which could include suicide bombings.

And if Ethiopia has a premature pull-out, the government forces will have a hard time quelling any violence that flares up.

For now, the government is as powerless as it has been since its creation by the international community in 2004. While the joint Ethiopian-government troops effortlessly regained the country from the Islamists, Bryden said the government soldiers were no more than passengers on Ethiopian vehicles.

"There is a risk that the government will be unable to govern and that there will be instability. That risk is very real," Bryden said.

In order to secure the country's future, the same solution that has been suggested for months remains: the government needs to forge a power-sharing agreement with the Hawiyeh clan, which largely made up the UIC and somehow get credible members into the administration.

"If the transitional government could actually stabilize itself than the Iraq trap would be avoided," Bryden said.

With so many futile attempts at doing so, the Ethiopian intervention seems to be a flawed solution to an ongoing crisis.