Somalia: Eritrea might invade Ethiopia again

american chronicle


Top Somali Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has demanded for the end of Ethiopian support for the Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) once again. But according to the Main & Guardian, together with the Eritrean government, the Islamists have now warned of an “all-out war” if Ethiopian troops do not withdraw.

According to BBC analyst Patrick Gilkes and various UN documents, the Eritrean government has been arming Oromo Liberation Front and the Islamic Courts Union(ICU) who have been alleged of supporting Al-Qaeda operatives. Despite the American mission to find the terrorists inside ICU and stopping the formation of a Taliban like Somali government, the Ethiopian government’s original mission of defeating the source of “Jihad” call, responding to the “invitation” of the Somali government and repelling the threat of Islamic annexation of Ethiopian territories is still ongoing. But most analysts are still convinced that the involvement of the Eritrean government in Somalia was the real and only reason for the concern of the Ethiopian government.

One sign that indicated a warning of more Eritrean involvement to come was when the Husseid Aidid claimed that “Less than 10% of our forces are on the ground against the Ethiopians.” In reality, the Islamists have been overwhelmingly defeated and are left to fighting just minor guerrilla wars so it would look like his claims were empty. However when Mr. Husseid said “less than 10%” and when he said “No army…can stop what is coming up" he might be talking about a massive military assistance from the Eritrean army which can invade Ethiopia from the north. In East Africa, that is the only large military available to challenge the Ethiopians.

The Eritrean government has already invaded Yemen and Ethiopia before. According to the international commission in The Hague, the UN has concluded that the Eritrean government broke international law by starting the 1998-2002 war with Ethiopia. Also there has been a lot of pressure against the Eritreans very recently. After some of the British hostages left Eritrea, the Ethiopian government has been accusing Eritrea of keeping the rest of the Ethiopian hostages and there has been a lot of campaign to free the hostages. Also some Western officials have been asking for sanctions against the Eritrean government and Rights groups like IFEX have added more pressure.

Both the kidnappers and the Islamist leaders were recently seen on Eritrean national TV with the Eritrean authorities. In addition to these, past Eritrean assistance and the several Eritrean soldiers arrested, including the captured Eritrean army general in Somalia, have persuaded the US state department to recently label Eritrea as the major supporter of the insurgency in Somalia. All of this buildup of pressure on the Eritrean government might create a “nothing to lose” attitude in Asmara and validate another Eritrean invasion.

Hussein Aidid’s work of art

If a war would start between Eritrea and Ethiopia, it should be partially called the masterwork of the Somali genius DPM Hussein Aidid. Once labeled as one of the most loyal figure to the transitional government and to the Ethiopians, now he almost single-handedly broke the back of the transitional government when he switched sides late in this Somali crisis and went to Eritrea.

But despite this genius work by Deputy Prime Minister Hussein Aidid, this switch was actually anticipated by some regional analysts. For example, after the Ethiopians and the Somali government forces defeated the Islamists, Hussein Aidid unexpectedly called Ethiopian troops heroes and erratically contemplated about Somalis & Ethiopians using the same passport. Thus he effectively sent a nation wide rage, suspicion and more hate towards the Ethiopian troops. His comments also made other Diaspora Somalis, who are extremely nationalistic, distrust the transitional government even more. Such “shock effect” was what was really needed to take the mistrust & skepticism between the transitional government and the people of Mogadishu into a higher and more dangerous level.

Prior to his wild comments, other systematic propaganda moves were taken by many sympathizers of the Islamists to utilize this “shock effect,” including randomly accusing the transitional government of giving Somalia as an Ethiopian colony or letting EThiopia annex Somalia. Some sympathizers of the Islamists even staged fake reports of Ethiopian troops raping Somali women, used pro-Islamist "Human Rights Organizations" to defraud other international Human Rights groups regarding into alleging a War crime and falsely reported the recapture of Kismayo city by the Islamists.

If there will be an Eritrean invasion, more of these propaganda and systematic techniques will be used by the Islamists to revive the resistance, to keep Ethiopia on edge, to get European sympathy and most of all to use the media to scare away the African Union force from coming to help the Somali transitional government.

The OLF oromo factor

Oromo political parties like Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) and Geda System Advancement Party (GSAP) hold around 80% of parliament seats of the Oromia regional state in Ethiopia. CUD party and ONC/UEDF hold the rest. And due to the lack of violence and persecution against Oromos recently, the Oromo Liberation Front(OLF) has increased its propaganda campaign asking for an uprising in Oromia based on fabricated reports. This call for rebellion in Ethiopia is not being supported since OPDO and Oromo elders are bracing and addressing the public about the OLF threat. In the most recent interview, Oromia’s OFDM party leader, Bulcha Demeksa, condemned OLF’s past terrorist activities in Ethiopia.

However, for the first time, OLF is utilizing its diplomatic resources in the West by using propaganda against Oromo immigrants. Just during the last month, two pro-OLF rallies have been held by Oromo students who are mostly influenced by OLF's misinformation, one in Howard University and another one in Washington D.C. Inside sources state that another OLF rally will be held in Minnesota very soon. Until lately, OLF has used minimal diplomatic efforts, mostly due to the Human Rights issues it faced after its militias massacred hundreds of ethnic Amhara Ethiopians during the 1990-1993 transition period of the country.

“Siyadism” and the issue of Somaliland

It is precise to state that the Hawiye clan has been the dominant figure in Somalia, economically and politically, for many years. However Somali president Yusuf’s clan, the Darod, has been equally influential. In fact some suggest that Yusuf believes in clan supremacy just like the dictator Siyad Barre. Thus some Somalis have claimed that the only difference between Yusuf and Siyad is that Yusuf believes his Majerteen sub-clan should reign while Siyad Barre was from the Marehan sub-clan. Certainly, most of these are speculations from Non-Darod Somalis but Yusuf’s autocratic behavior is very similar to that of the former Derg official Hailu Shawel, who is the chairman of Ethiopian opposition party CUD. Thus Yusuf might not be tolerant enough to facilitate the Somalia reconciliation conference and many early sign are showing his failures. The fact that many Somalis belonging to the Darod clan were killed and some forced out of Mogadishu in the early 1990s might be a factor to clan bitterness. And also, with the old animosity between the Somaliland region and Yusuf’s Puntland region, other conflicts can restart to complicate the already tense situation in Mogadishu. Ethiopian government might be forced to address this northern conflict over the Dahar region between Somaliland and Puntland because Ethiopia already has influence on both regions to demand peaceful solutions for sharing Dahar.

Thus there is a very thin line of balance to be played by the Ethiopian government so that it can satisfy Somaliland’s age old independence wishes while keeping Puntland & Yusuf happy and persuading Yusuf to be accommodating to other clans in southern Somalia. Also the Hawiye Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi can not afford to play nominal roles in this government. He has the education and many qualities to lead. His selection of the Hawiye warlord Abdi Awale Qeybdiid might be a good step but more has to come from him and Ethiopia should pressure Yusuf to give PM Gedi more power in Mogadishu. These are some of the things the Ethiopian government might do to get out of Somalia even before more AU troops arrive. Playing a delicate line of balance in its support for Yusuf, Gedi and Somaliland is very important for Ethiopia and for many of its long-term interests. Some of these interests include:

* To have beneficial economic cooperation and peaceful co-existence with a friendly Somalia and Somaliland nations that respect national boundaries.

* To allow Somaliland, which was mostly independent before a united “Somalia” existed, gain its sovereignty. Thus creating a long-term ally for Ethiopia and stabilizing Somalia.

* To keep Puntland satisfied since Ogaden National Liberation Front rebels have Darod clan connections with Puntland. (ONLF is believed to have assassinated many Somali leaders in Ethiopia’s Somali state, especially from Somali People’s Democratic Party (SPDP) who has 24 seats in the Ethiopian parliament.)

* To keep the already flourishing relationship between Addis Ababa and Hargeisha and to prevent Djibouti from monopolizing the port transportation business on Addis Ababa.

* To resist Egypt, which is blocking Somaliland’s bid for independence and arming OLF & ONLF militants. Egypt’s main goals against Ethiopia remain the domination of the Nile River and the creation of an Islamic state in Ethiopia to create a puppet government. (Egypt’s growing population will depend even more on the Nile basin in the 21st century and Nasser Military Academy in East Cairo is dedicated to watching the Nile situation in Ethiopia. If other measures fail, since the 1990s, Dr Hamdi el-Taheri and many Egyptian authorities have advised for the bombing of Ethiopian Dams along the Nile River.)

* To reduce Eritrea’s future military options both in case Eritrean government attacks and for future diplomatic work with Eritrea. [This is necessary because all parties in Ethiopia benefit from it. Ethiopia’s Afar National Democratic Party (ANDP) and Afar People’s Democratic Movement (APDM) as well as the Afar people want the Afar lands in east Eritrea to be reunited with Ethiopia. Ruling sub-party TPLF still aims to reunite the ethnic Tigrayan people in Eritrea with Ethiopia. And various political parties, including CUD, UEDF,UEDP & OFDM claim that the Asseb seaport in eastern Eritrea should be returned to Ethiopia.] Currently, Eritrea gets a lot of military assistance from Iran & Libya due to its deteriorating economy.

* To resist Saudi Arabia and Libya, who are also blocking Somaliland’s independence for fear of an Israeli alliance which is already preferred by Somaliland’s “British friendly” administrators. The fact that a pro-west nation in east Africa is considered a positive development to Ethiopia’s long-term national interests is an open secret.

* To prevent Libya, Egypt and Eritrea from using Somalia as a base for their proxy attacks against Ethiopia. OLF and ONLF have historical ties with these countries.

* To have a moderate Islam or perhaps a secular Somali nation in order to prevent the radicalization of southern Ethiopia against the Northern/Central Orthodox Christians and the Western Protestant Christians. (There have been several religious clashes in Ethiopia caused by the aggressive Islamic movements and the growing evangelical churches which have reduced the domination of the Orthodox Church.)

But with other pressure growing against Eritrea, most expect the Eritrean government to play the same previous role by invading Ethiopia or at least arming more anti-Ethiopia factions to damage Ethiopia’s current & long-term national interests.