Analysis: now war looms in Gaza

TIMESONLINE
Hard as it is to imagine, but Israel may again be preparing to go to war.

Less than a year after the disastrous invasion of Lebanon, Ehud Olmert, the Prime Minister, is under growing pressure to send troops into the Gaza Strip to prevent Hamas militants firing rockets at the Israeli township of Sderot.

The moves, which will be discussed at Sunday's Cabinet meeting in Israel, come as Israeli warplanes have attacked suspected Hamas positions in Gaza and Israeli armoured units have taken up positions just inside the narrow coast strip. In a separate, but related battle, rival Palestinian factions loyal to Fatah and Hamas have continued their week-long street battle in Gaza, which has claimed dozens of lives.

Behind the latest violence, and the threat of a serious escalation, lies the volatile political situation in Israel and Palestine.

Mr Olmert is still reeling from last year's war in Lebanon and the findings of the Winograd commission of inquiry which blamed him for many of the failures. He is clinging on to power by a narrow majority and with rock-bottom public support. Members of his own coalition government, notably Tsipi Livni, his ambitious Foreign Minister, have openly called for him to step down.

The rightwing opposition under the leadership of Benyamin Netanyahu, the Likud leader, is exploiting the government's weakness. He is calling for a robust response to the Hamas attacks and proposing sealing off Gaza, cutting off its water and electricity supplies and sending ground troops four or five kilometers into the strip to blunt the range Hamas' infamous Kassam rockets.

The dangers of a military incursion are obvious to everyone. An attack into Gaza would result in many Palestinian civilian casualties. Israeli ground forces would also meet stiff resistance. Once in, it could become difficult for the Israelis to leave.

Also, there is the political impact to consider. It is widely assumed that Hamas is attacking Israeli precisely to provoke a military response. The group has always thrived on conflict. The tougher Israel responds, the more support it will receive and the less backing for Fatah, the mainstream movement loyal to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President.

His position is also greatly weakened by the current violence and the fragile Hamas-Fatah unity government agreed earlier this year in Mecca is in danger of collapse.

In the worst case scenario, often the norm in the Middle East, Gaza will descend further into violence, the Palestinian government will collapse to be followed shortly afterwards by Mr Olmert's own demise.

Ordinarily the West would intervene to stop the situation unravelling. But Britain and France are now being run by two new and inexperienced leaders. President Bush is weak and distracted by his own problems in Iraq. All the diplomatic options look tired and unconvincing.

The prospects for the region could not be bleaker.