Navarro On Prospect of War With China And/Or Russia - On the Money - Ka-Ching! - CNBC.com

Navarro On Prospect of War With China And/Or Russia - On the Money - Ka-Ching! - CNBC.com

Thursday, 7 Jun 2007
Navarro On Prospect of War With China And/Or Russia
Posted By:Peter Navarro
Topics:South America | Europe (West) | Europe (East) | Middle East | Defense | Russia | China

Tonight’s OTM segment at 7:30ish est. should be essential viewing – if for no other reason than to get a sneak peak at the latest in U.S. naval technology. The DD(X) destroyer bears an interesting resemblance to the old civil war Monitor of Monitor vs. Merrimac fame but comes in a Star Wars package. Check out this little quote from defensetech.org:

The attack would come quickly, and it would be awful. Cruising far offshore, the U.S. Navy's DD(X) destroyer launches 20 artillery shells in less than a minute. As the satellite-guided weapons fall back to Earth at 830 mph, computer algorithms alter their flight paths so that the 250-pound projectiles all strike the same patch of ground at the same time, reducing everything in the vicinity to rubble and dust. If more firepower is needed, the destroyer can unleash another 580 artillery rounds, as well as 80 Tomahawk missiles. And when the attack is over, the ship simply vanishes. On a radar screen, the DD(X)'s stealthy hull makes the 14,000-ton vessel look like just another fishing boat, casting its nets into the sea.

The broader topic at hand is whether the U.S. is destined to go to war with either China or Russia – or both. The latest Pentagon report on Chinese militarization clearly indicates that China is morphing into a threat that stretches beyond a conflict over Taiwan into any one of a number of conflicts over strategic access to oil and natural resources. The concern is the broad development of a number of weapons that directly challenge the U.S.

For example, China’s counterspace program, which includes an antisatellite weapons capability, has at its root the object of rendering U.S. space assets deaf, dumb, and blind. It’s new DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missile has extended China’s reach and range. It’s new nuclear subs will be capable of hitting the continental U.S. And the Russians are supplying China with a wide range of ships and planes.

Here are some possible triggers for war with China:

1. Taiwan – One scenario here is some type of internal unrest in China caused by anyone of a number of events such as a severe economic downturn, the collapse of the Three Gorges Dam (and the loss of millions of lives), a Chernobyl-like event in its nuclear program, and so on. In such a case, the central government might try to use Taiwan as a rallying cry and distraction for a restive population, putting the U.S. right in the crosshairs.

2. The Middle East – China is clearly jockeying for position in the Middle East, particularly in Iran. If China continues to supply Iran with nuclear technologies and/or missiles that in turn are used against Israel, this could quickly escalate into first an Iran/Israel conflict (and possible nuclear exchange) and then more direct conflict with China should it come to Iran’s aid. There is also the matter of the critical sea lanes that bring Middle Eastern crude to China – which could be subject to blockage by U.S. naval forces in times of conflict.

3. Latin America – China is cozying up to Venezuela and may wind up helping Hugo Chavez create Latin America’s largest military force in exchange for access to Venezuelan oil reserves. Whether the U.S. would stand by and let this happen is an open question in light of the Monroe Doctrine and long standing strategic interests.

4. North Korea – Until the little dictator of Pyongyang passes into the night, this country remains a wild card. China remains conflicted over how much to support NK but if push comes to shove – say, if NK launches a nuke or attacks SK – China will have to take sides. Could be against the U.S.

As for war with Russia, this remains a more remote possibility. The more likely scenario is that in a world of high oil prices, the Russian oligarchs will simply bleed the West as dry as they can.

If oil prices were to collapse, however, the Russian economy may well go down the toilet as well. In such a case, anything can happen – and remember that Russia still has about 4000 nukes pointed our way.

As a final thought on this, the U.S. is clearly provoking the Russian bear, moving as it is to develop financial ties, energy resources, and military bases in former territories of the USSR or former areas of Russian influence – from the Ukraine and Georgia to Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

Peter Navarro is a CNBC contributor, business professor at the University of California-Irvine, and author of The Coming China Wars.