Ron Paul Better in the General Election than Giuliani and Thompson Among 30 Year Olds; Leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 44% Among 40 Year Olds

USA ELECTION POLLS

10/22/07

Those that have premium account access with Rasmussen Reports are provided with a flurry of great polling data tabulated by gender, age, race, party, and ideology. This is some great stuff for those of you hard core political junkies.

We put up the results of a Zogby poll yesterday that showed Hillary Clinton was the most objectionable Democrat and that Ron Paul was the most objectionable Republican. We got a bit curious to see how those two fared against each other and with access to the archives with Rasmussen Reports, we tallied it here below for you.

Rasmussen Reports	TOTAL	18-29	30-39	40-49	50-64	65+
Ron Paul	38%	34%	41%	47%	35%	38%
Hillary Clinton	48%	54%	43%	44%	49%	48%

There was a total 1200 likely voters polled in this survey from October 12-14, 2007.

What we found incredibly interesting wth respect to the results was that Ron Paul actually fared the worst among 18-29 year olds, an age group he is expected to be very popular with. Younger voters tend to vote Democratic though, and his performing poorly here is not such a big deal. What strikes us as being very interesting is the fact that he leads among 40 year olds and not far off among 30 year olds. Please note that the margin of error of each age subgroup is larger than the total poll itself. Thus, Ron Paul is statistically in a dead heat with Hillary Clinton among 30-year olds and with 40-year olds.

But this is an age group where Republicans should do well. George Bush was very successful in beating John Kerry 53% to 46% among 30-44 year olds according to the exit polls.

So we then went off to see how Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, the leading Republican candidates fared against Hillary Clinton in polls taken of 800 likely voters from October 8-9.

Rasmussen Reports	TOTAL	18-29	30-39	40-49	50-64	65+
Rudy Giuliani	41%	39%	36%	45%	41%	45%
Hillary Clinton	48%	49%	54%	37%	49%	47%

Rasmussen Reports	TOTAL	18-29	30-39	40-49	50-64	65+
Fred Thompson	37%	28%	32%	43%	37%	43%
Hillary Clinton	52%	64%	63%	43%	52%	41%

The results here are quite astonishing folks. Rudy Giuliani would lose against Hillary Clinton among 30 year olds 54% to 36%. So would Fred Thompson 63% to 32%. All this contrary to the fact that Republicans should win (do well) in this age range. Only Ron Paul does.

This sample is smaller (larger MoE) and taken a few days prior but that does not mean much when you consider Ron Paul is behind Clinton 2% versus Giuliani being behind 18% among 30 year olds.

No matter how you slice it, Rudy Giuliani only does 3% better than does Ron Paul against Hillary Clinton. Now that speaks highly of Hillary Clinton and the Democrats for the 2008 election at this point.

Whether this means Ron Paul has a better chance to beat Hillary Clinton than Rudy Giuliani can be debated though. This is because there is a chance that Republicans and Conservatives who picked Ron Paul might not do so in reality because they may have been unknown of his anti-war stance. Then again, the moderate voters might be more likely to choose Ron Paul because of that.

The point is Ron Paul has some room for growth considering his low name recognition and possible likelihood of mobilizing and improving on how he does among moderate voters [reference] and even the youth voters. And the Republicans not supporting him, well Hillary Clinton is so hated, they might just vote Paul anyways as a protest vote. Not exactly certain at this point how those voters would respond.

Side Note: Romney is ahead of Clinton; 45% to 42% among 30 year olds, and 46% to 45% among 40 year olds. But loses 47% to 41%.

Side Note: McCain does the best against Clinton. Ahead 47% to 41% among 30 year olds, and 46% to 41% among 40 year olds.

The tables of McCain and Romney are shown below. Please note that this poll was taken October 10-11 of 800 likely voters.

Rasmussen Reports	TOTAL	18-29	30-39	40-49	50-64	65+
Mitt Romney	41%	38%	45%	46%	37%	43%
Hillary Clinton	47%	52%	42%	45%	52%	43%

Rasmussen Reports	TOTAL	18-29	30-39	40-49	50-64	65+
John McCain	43%	35%	47%	46%	43%	44%
Hillary Clinton	44%	51%	41%	41%	45%	44%

This is the FREE article by Rasmussen Reports related to this article.

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