Al-Maliki Will Fall

Michael S. Rozeff
LRC Blog
March 30, 2008

The attack by al-Maliki on al-Sadr is very important. He attacked without knowledge of the U.S. Al-Sadr is not defeated and cannot be if he plays his 4th generation cards right, and he is. For he is withdrawing where under attack, but not surrendering, and he did not order a full-scale counterattack. Combine that with his months-old cease-fire and he retains the moral high ground. Al-Maliki becomes the aggressor. Any sustained efforts at bombing the slums and civilian districts where Sadr has his followers only weakens the bombers, the U.S. and Brits if they are still around, and Maliki who instigated this. Sadr is a de-centralist (at present), and thus the enemy of the Iraq centralizers.

Maliki’s impulsive attack and non-victory have a good chance of bringing his government entirely down. The U.S. then is further away than ever from stabilizing Iraq either as one state or as several.

Maliki’s attack shows in high-definition that the U.S. presence (it is held hostage by events beyond its control) is pointless. But Bush will not withdraw, and now is even less likely to withdraw. Any plans Bush may have had have just evaporated. The U.S. will scramble to deal with this new situation.

The attacks on the Green Zone signal a change as well.